Rob Coleman

Archive for March, 2012|Monthly archive page

Social Media’s Super Tuesday Predictions

In Election, Social Media on March 5, 2012 at 4:58 pm

Can social media predict an election? Super Tuesday is tomorrow, and the folks at SocialMatica.com are examining this possibility.

The notion being tested here is that by measuring the influence of each Republican candidate in the social media realm, we can identify the winner. In short, Buzz=Votes. It will be interesting to see whether this is indeed any type of predictor, or whether it offers better accuracy than the traditional polling.

Are people more likely to discuss a candidate on social media if they intend to vote for the candidate? Probably so, but can that lead us to forecast an election? Color me skeptical, especially given that Rick Santorum isn’t predicted to finish in the top two in any state on Super Tuesday. That flies in the face of all the polls. But regardless, as a case study in social media, I’ll enjoy seeing the actual results.

Here are the Super Tuesday predictions from SocialMatica and Real Clear Politics, which offers the results of many traditional polls: Read the rest of this entry »